Russia moves invasion to phase two

Russia’s war ministry gave an update on its invasion of Ukraine, in which it stated the invasion was going to plan and would now be moving to phase two. Whatever that means.  

Saving face? 

Ukraine probably has a pretty good idea of what ‘phase two’ means: the division of its land. Despite fruitless peace talks and a willingness from Ukraine to consider ‘neutrality’ – presumably meaning no NATO – Russia has shown little interest in winding its operations down.  

But even a misinformation machine such as Russia’s can only fight off truth for so long. There’s no escaping the reality that its war machine is stuck in the mud. Its armed forces are taking heavy losses and it’s failed to take any of its major day one objectives. Its sole success, the occupation of Kherson, is now under threat too, as western intelligence now considers the city contested again thanks to Ukrainian counter attacks over the last week. Bad for Vlad.  

The eastern front 

Russia says it will now be focusing its efforts on the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk – two regions that Russian forces annexed in 2014. Success in these areas could lead to a sweeping strike that cuts off some of Ukraine’s best forces in the east, potentially leading to a domino effect across the rest of the country.  

So while the official Russian army line is that it had never truly intended to take Kyiv, success in the east could well open the door to a renewed effort in the coming weeks.