May 3, 2022 · less than 3 min read
The German bank is predicting a rough ride for the US economy.
From mild to mayhem
It seems like only yesterday Deutsche Bank was predicting a ‘mild’ recession for the US – a month ago, to be exact. But things change fast, and now the bank has doubled down on its earlier prediction, saying it’s likely to be far worse than planned. Great.
Now, Deutsche Bank has said it expects a major recession from late 2023 to early 2024, with things set to get much worse before they get better. And with a global pandemic and now full-scale war wreaking havoc, it’s not hard to see why.
The skeptic tank
Deutsche Bank’s outlook is a little more doom and gloom than its peers. Other major banking companies are less cynical, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 35% chance of a recession in the next two years, and Morgan Stanley’s CIO writing that her team was “far from calling a US recession”.
But don’t get your hopes up just yet. Inflation has been doing damage to the US economy since last year, and recently hit a four-decade high of 8.5%. And while the Fed is ready for the big inflation fight, its slow reaction time means Deutsche Bank’s skepticism isn’t unfounded. Buckle up – it’s gonna be a ride.
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